Both the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have run models on the effect of climate change on America over the coming decades – and it doesn’t make for pretty reading. Under the current emissions pathway the country is facing warmer temperatures, rising sea levels, and more frequent and intense severe weather events.
Click through the gallery for their predictions about the impact climate change will have on your state...
Alabama already has a problem with subsidence. And with sea levels rising because of global warming, that spells real trouble for the state as we approach the middle of the century. Sea levels along the Alabama coast are set to rise 18 inches to four feet, submerging land, and eroding beaches. Scientists predict that what are now regarded as once-in-100-year storm surges will occur every 10 years, or even more frequently, wiping out coastal communities, pushing up insurance premiums, and adding billions of dollars to damage checks.
Things are really heating up in Alaska and it's only going to get hotter. Over the past 60 years, winters have been 6°F warmer. Glaciers are shrinking, sea ice is retreating, and permafrost is thawing. Insect outbreaks and wildfires are becoming more common. Habitat for species like polar bears and walruses are disappearing. And with warm, drier summers, more frequent thunderstorms have led to ferocious forest and tundra fires, like this one threatening the Yukon Delta. Scientists are predicting the number of acres burned by wildfires each year is set to double by 2050 and triple by 2100.
Heat waves are becoming more common across Arizona, with Phoenix sweltering in temperatures of 110°F for a record 54 days in a row in the summer of 2023. Snow is melting earlier in spring which, in the coming decades, will see a decrease in the flow of water in the Colorado River in later months. This will threaten the health of livestock, increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and see some of the state’s important rangelands reduced to desert. By 2050, the need for water will increase while the supply will be reduced, creating a climate disaster.
While Arkansas has not become warmer during the last 50-100 years, annual rainfall has increased, arriving in heavy downpours. The amount of precipitation falling during heavy rainstorms increased by 27% and is set to get worse over the coming decade. Arkansas will see more intensive inland flooding and greater damage from storms, reducing crop yields, and harming livestock. Arkansas will also bear the brunt of increased rainfall in other Midwestern states too, particularly along the Mississippi River, where the rain from these states drains into.
California is facing climate disruption on all fronts. The state is getting warmer, particularly in the south, and heat waves are becoming more common. Snow is melting earlier in the spring and less rain is falling. The supply of water is under threat and the risk of wildfires is increasing. Rising sea levels will impact the state too, with a 16-inch rise washing away coastal highways and bridges, and potentially wiping out both San Francisco and Oakland airports. The sea level along California’s coast is expected to rise between one and four feet over the next century.
Temperatures in Colorado have risen about 2.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century and the occurrence of very hot days has increased since 2000. Combined with less snow and earlier snow melt, these warmer temperatures have reduced overall water availability. This has caused longer dry spells, more severe droughts, and an increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires in the state. Colorado’s winter wheat crop has been impacted too, putting an important source of food for livestock in jeopardy.
As temperatures rise across the northeastern US, spring is arriving earlier and bringing with it more precipitation and heavier, more frequent rainstorms. Sea levels along the Connecticut coast are rising at 10-12 inches per century – faster than the global rate. Coastal cities and towns will become more vulnerable as shorelines erode and storm surges become higher. Over the next few decades, increased flooding across Connecticut will harm ecosystems, disrupt farming, and impact human health.
Follow our Facebook page for more environment news and travel inspiration
Delaware is another state facing devastating changes in precipitation patterns that will increase the intensity of both floods and droughts. Heavy rains will become more common in winter and spring. And earlier snow melts will lead to drier soils and droughts in summer and fall, affecting levels in important waterways like the Delaware River (pictured). With sea levels expected to rise at least one inch every seven years, Delaware’s coast will erode, with coastal flooding exacerbated and lowlands being submerged, increasing the salinity of estuaries and aquifers, and disrupting farming.
Temperatures are set to rise by more than 2°F in the nation's capital over the coming decades. In fact, five of the six hottest summers have been recorded since 2010, a trend that is set to continue. And with the Potomac River rising one inch every eight years, tidal flooding is expected to cause severe sewage overflows – a serious risk to human health.
Hurricanes are a fact of life in Florida, but thanks to global warming over the next couple of decades, they are set to become more frequent and intense, bringing much higher levels of rainfall with them. And as sea levels rise, the state will see more nuisance-level coastal flooding and saltwater contamination of coastal groundwater reservoirs. By 2050, Florida can expect bigger storm damage checks, decimated coral reefs, more unpleasantly hot days, and lower agricultural yields.
While temperatures have increased at less than half the rate than the rest of the US, a spike in temperatures in Georgia between 2016-2020 points to warmer days ahead. Such higher temperatures are expected to increase the rate of soil moisture loss, leading to more intense droughts and increased competition for the state’s precious water resources, like the Ocmulgee River reservoir, seen here. Rising sea levels will also lead to coastal flooding, threatening developments along Georgia’s coastline.
Verdant Hawaii is seen by many as a tropical paradise. But a dramatic drop in rainfall has seen the availability of freshwater on some islands decrease dramatically, affecting delicate land-based ecosystems and harming native species. Extreme precipitation events will become more common and intense on the Island of Hawaii, though not on Kauai and Oahu. Rising sea levels will increase erosion and threaten coastal communities and infrastructure. And the warming of the oceans and acidification will see an increase in mass bleaching of coral and impact other marine species.
Warming temperatures will see Idaho’s snowpacks melting earlier, decreasing the flow of vital meltwater into streams during the summer. Tree lines will creep higher in the mountains while in the south, many habitats will be destroyed. The frequency and intensity of wildfires will increase in the drier conditions too, in a state that is already America's most heavily burned. Idaho has lost nearly 1% of land to wildfires each year since 1984, like this one in Boise National Forest in 2016. That is set to double as wildfires become more common and intense.
The changing climate is likely to lead to more frequent flooding in Illinois. Over the last half century, precipitation has increased by 5-10%, the amount of rain that fell on the wettest days of the year increased by 35%, and the water flowing in streams during flooding is up by 20%. Over the next couple of decades rainfall in spring is set to increase and severe rain storms will become more frequent, causing havoc in the agriculture industry as crops get flooded (pictured) and vital spring plantings are delayed.
Increasingly frequent floods and droughts caused by higher temperatures are set to create havoc in Indiana’s agricultural industry over the next couple of decades. Projected increases in winter and spring precipitation will see planting delays and negatively impact crop yields, particularly corn harvests. The changing weather patterns will impact the state’s most important waterways too. The navigability of the Ohio River is affected adversely by both flooding and droughts. And while a longer ice-free season along the Great Lakes has its benefits, it also harms water quality with more algal blooms and pollution from stormwater runoff.
Over the next few decades, Iowa will see an increase in heavy precipitation and flooding that will damage infrastructure, impact on the navigability of both the Mississippi and Missouri rivers, and threaten the livelihoods of both riverside and farming communities. Increasingly hot summers will reduce the yields of vital corn and soybean crops. And the rising concentrations of greenhouse gasses could also create the kind of atmospheric instability that leads to tornadoes. With Iowa already experiencing about 50 tornadoes a year, it's something meteorologists are keeping a close eye on.
Projected increases in temperatures in Kansas over the next few decades are set to have a devastating impact on the state’s agricultural economy. The state is particularly vulnerable to droughts and heat waves, both of which are predicted to get more frequent and intense. As much as 22% of the state’s farmland already relies on irrigation and that is set to increase as the flow of rivers and streams decreases. And like Iowa, Kansas sits on Tornado Alley, averaging 100 tornadoes each year. Meteorologists expect them to become more frequent and devastating too.
Over the next two decades Kentucky will experience heavy rain and flooding in winter and spring, and warmer temperatures and drought in summer. Crop yields will diminish, with aquatic ecosystems damaged, and competing demands for water from the Ohio, Tennessee, and Cumberland Rivers will become harder to manage. Things look particularly grim in the western half of Kentucky, which is expected to experience up to 30 more days a year of temperatures above 95°F, causing a dramatic effect on livestock productivity.
Louisiana has been losing 25 square miles (65sq km) of land to the sea in recent decades and that is set to grow as sea levels rise. Made up of sediment washed down from the Mississippi River, the river deltas of coastal Louisiana have always sunk an inch or so every three years as the sediment compacted. Historically, the river would overflow its banks and top that up with more sediment. But over the coming decades, river levees, navigation channels, human activities, and rising sea levels will thwart this natural land-building process, leading to more land being submerged.
Landmarks from around the world that are under threat from climate change
Winters have been warming by 7% since the beginning of the 20th century in Maine and that's causing real problems. Rain is replacing snow, impacting tourism, increasing flooding, and disrupting fishing and agriculture – the two economic pillars of the state. Precipitation from heavy storms is up 70% since 1958 and is set to rise over the next two decades. Meanwhile, rising sea levels are eroding wetlands and beaches, removing important barriers against coastal flooding. Coastal cities and towns will become more vulnerable to storms washing out highways, railway lines, and other important infrastructure.
Sea levels are already rising faster in Maryland than most coastal parts of the US and that's only set to get worse over the next couple of decades. The Potomac, Patuxent, Choptank, and Nanticoke rivers are already struggling with high sediment levels in their upper tidal sections and should result in sea levels rising two feet (0.6m), well within projected levels. The wetlands around the Bay Bridge and Dorchester will become submerged and Assateague Island (pictured) will be broken up by new inlets or lost to erosion.
Precipitation in Massachusetts jumped an average 4.7 inches since the 1970s compared to the century that preceded it. The state has been buffeted by a record-breaking number of extreme precipitation events between 2005-2014, with coming decades set to be even wetter and wilder, especially in winter and spring. The state is also vulnerable to rising sea levels, with human activity having destroyed about one-third of Massachusetts’ wetlands since the 1800s. Boston alone is facing damage costs from storm surges in the 21st century of between $5 billion and a staggering $100 billion, depending on how it responds to the problem.
From its lakes to its cities and rural heartland, no part of Michigan will escape the impact of climate change over the next two decades. Warmer waters in Lake Michigan and Lake Eerie and increased stormwater runoff from heavier rains will lead to the kind of algae blooms and pollution levels that saw the Monroe County Health Authorities advise residents to avoid using tap water in 2014. Northern cities like Detroit will struggle to cope with the more intense and frequent heat waves because of a lack of air-conditioning. In rural areas those same heat waves will decimate corn harvests.
For Minnesotans used to bitterly cold winters, the warmer temperatures they are expected to experience by 2050 will reduce heating energy demand and lengthen growing seasons for crops. But with those warmer temperatures come heavier rains and intense flooding that will increase erosion, destroy infrastructure, and damage crops, particularly in the Red River watershed. They’ll also get less time to enjoy their much-loved winter sports. Here we see the 2024 annual Powderhorn Park Art Sled Rally in Minneapolis, held in January, without snow because of warmer weather.
Unlike most of the United States, Mississippi has not become warmer over the past 100 years, with temperatures only rising by a miniscule 0.1°F. But that's set to change over the next two decades. Soils will become drier, rainfall will increase and arrive in heavier downpours, reducing crop yields and harming livestock. Sea levels are rising rapidly along the Mississippi coastline too, by between 20 inches and four feet over the next century according to experts. Coastal communities along Mississippi Sound are currently protected by undeveloped barrier islands. Once they are submerged the floodgates will quite literally be opened.
As temperatures increase and rainfall becomes heavier in Missouri over the next couple of decades, the state will see more severe flooding along the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, like the flood that prompted the evacuation of Cairo, Illinois in 2011, resulting in the opening of the Birds Point-New Madrid floodway and the decimation of 100,000 acres of farmland. Heat waves and droughts will become more common too, turning cities like St Louis into unbearable sweatboxes and affecting crops in a state heavily dependent on agriculture for its livelihood.
By 2050, Montana will be a very different state to the one it is now. The Big Sky state will be drier and warmer, with a higher tree line where subalpine firs will grow at the expense of today’s unique but fragile alpine tundra ecosystem. As the amount of water available decreases agricultural yield will diminish, the soil supporting the vast sweeping grasslands will dry, and forest fires will become more frequent and intense. The famous glaciers of Glacier National Park will melt and recede (pictured), with some climate scientists suggesting that several will have disappeared altogether by 2050.
Drought has always been a threat to Nebraska’s agricultural economy. The state has been able to mitigate that risk through irrigation, but as temperatures rise and water levels drop over the coming decades, that will prove harder to do. Demand for water is expected to increase by 25% over the next 50 years and experts fear that the High Plains Aquifer System, where most of the water comes from, will decline like those in Kansas to the south. Drought will also reduce the generation of hydroelectric power just when it's needed to meet the increase in demand for air conditioning.
Nevada is already the driest state in the US and over the next few decades it's set to get even drier. Warmer temperatures in winter and vital snowpacks melting earlier in spring have seen droughts become increasingly common since the beginning of the 21st century, and are set to become even more frequent and more intense. Decreased water flows in the Colorado River have prompted the Southern Nevada Water Authority to build a new drinking water intake in Lake Mead (pictured) to supply Las Vegas should the lake fall below the Hoover Dam’s lowest outlet.
Incredible images that show the true impact of climate change
Winter temperatures in New Hampshire have increased by more than 3°F since 1900, with the number of very cold nights plummeting between 2010-2014. Spring is arriving sooner, bringing with it more rainstorms – there has been a 70% increase in extremely heavy storms since 1958. By 2050, floods caused by torrential downpours like the one that hit Alstead in 2005; and the Ottauquechee River in 2011, pictured here, will become more common and costly.
By 2050, New Jersey’s iconic boardwalks could well be a thing of the past. The sea level along the Jersey coast has risen by more than 16 inches since 1911, twice the global average, and is set to rise up to four feet over the coming decades. With an increase in the frequency and severity of serious storms, the state will see its iconic beaches eroded and lowlands submerged, plus deadly and costly coastal flooding, like that seen here when Hurricane Sandy battered the state in 2012.
The last decade has been the hottest on record in New Mexico, with the number of extremely hot days and warm nights increasing dramatically. That is set to get worse over the next couple of decades and when combined with the increased unpredictability in arrival and size of the state’s much-needed summer monsoon rainfall, the agricultural and ecological systems are under threat. The fear is that the drier conditions and increase in wildfires will change the state irrevocably, destroying forests and farmland, and seeing the Chihuahuan Desert expand its geological range.
As of 2020, the state-wide average temperature for New York was trending more than 4°F higher than the long-term average, with extreme heat and humidity having deadly consequences in densely populated areas like New York City. More rainfall in spring will see an increase in devastating floods across the state. And with sea levels rising faster than the global average, massive storm surges like the one that followed Superstorm Sandy will continue to destroy homes and infrastructure and cause billions of dollars in damage.
Rising sea levels pose the greatest climate threat to North Carolina over the next few decades. The state's coastline is already vulnerable because of its low elevation and subsidence across the northern Coastal Plain. The projected rise of between one and four feet over the next century would be devastating. Warmer temperatures are expected to bring more frequent and intense hurricanes, increasing the danger of storm surges, with the US Geological Survey predicting that the natural barrier of the Outer Banks between Nags Head and Ocracoke will be lost to the sea.
North Dakota is one of the few states set to benefit from the changing climate over the coming decades. Warmer temperatures have extended the growing season by 30 days since the start of the 20th century, with corn and soybeans growing in areas usually too cold for crops, increased yields in existing areas, with the possibility of planting two crops a year. There will be an increase in floods though, like the one on the Souris River near Minot in 2011 (pictured) which crested four feet above its previous record.
As the climate changes over the next few decades, Ohio is set to be hit by a double whammy of severe rainstorms in spring causing extensive flooding and higher temperatures, and droughts in the summer that will damage crops and impede navigation along its major rivers. A drought in 2012 brought about navigation restrictions on the lower Mississippi River costing the region more than $275 million, while heavy rains in March 2015 saw the Ohio River flood parts of Cincinnati. For a state so utterly dependent on agriculture, such extremes in weather are a recipe for disaster.
In a state that already depends on irrigation for 15% of its farmland, the prospect of drier summers, reduced river flows, and the depletion of the vital High Plains Aquifer System is an alarming one. Hotter and drier summers increase the rate of soil moisture loss, which in turn increases the intensity of future droughts. Wheat yields are likely to decline by 50% without irrigation and cattle ranchers will see their livestock eat less and grow more slowly. Increased wildfires and drier conditions threaten to change parts of the landscape too, with plants and animals in the drylands of western Oklahoma already struggling.
For a state famous for being damp, it seems perverse that the greatest threat to Oregon caused by climate change will be fire. Heavy rains will still fall, but mainly in the warmer winters, reducing snowpacks and leading to hotter and drier summers. The area of land burned by wildfires in Oregon is expected to double over the coming decades, destroying forest and grasslands and turning some rangelands to desert. Massive conflagrations, like the Labor Day fires of 2020 (pictured) that burned 1.2 million acres, are set to become the norm.
Pennsylvania has always been susceptible to flooding. One of the worst natural disasters in US history, the Great Flood of 1889 wiped out Johnstown in the south of the state. Over the coming decades the frequency of heavy downpours, and the amount of water they dump, are expected to increase dramatically. The tidal portion of the Delaware River is already increasing by one inch every eight years. Sea levels are increasing faster than the global average along the Pennsylvania coastline. And parts of Philadelphia (pictured), including the airport, are actually below sea level.
Sea levels around Newport on Rhode Island are already rising faster than the global average. With levels predicted to rise between one and four feet over the coming decades, that spells real trouble for the nation’s smallest state. Experts are predicting increased coastal flooding from winter storms (nor-easters) and hurricanes, which will increase in frequency and intensity. The period between 2004-2015 saw a record number of extreme weather events. Coastal cities and towns will become vulnerable to storm damage and erosion (pictured) and the fishing industry will be disrupted. Warmer waters could also see key ocean fisheries of cod and lobster decline.
While South Carolina has warmed less than most other states over the past century, creeping up by only 0.5-1°F, experts expect that to accelerate over the coming decades. More alarmingly, sea levels along the state’s coastline have been rising at 1.3 inches each decade, eroding beaches, submerging lowlands, and exacerbating coastal flooding. The kind of erosion seen here in Hunting Island is set to become commonplace, particularly as storms and hurricanes that hit this part of the US increase in frequency and ferocity too.
The coming decades will see rising temperatures and increases in rainfall in South Dakota, but that may not necessarily be such a bad thing. While corn yields will decrease in the warmer parts of the state, it will increase across the cooler parts of the Great Plains, with shorter winters allowing two crops a year in some places. Warmer winters will benefit cattle farmers too, with the high winds and heavy snow that killed half the newborn calves and 100,000 adult cows in 1996-1997 becoming less frequent. Drier summers, however, will bring with them the specter of droughts.
Tennessee has always been prone to thunderstorms, flooding, tornadoes, droughts, heat waves and winter blizzards. Since 2000 the state has suffered 33 severe storm and flooding events, severe enough to be declared disasters. In April 2011, Tennessee recorded a whopping 93 tornadoes. And in February 2021, heavy snow and ice in the Great Smoky Mountains caused widespread damage. As temperatures rise and rainfall increases over the coming decades, the ferocity of these extreme weather events will only get worse.
Texas’ beleaguered coastlines are in for an even greater battering over the coming decades. Sea levels are expected to rise between two and five feet over the next century from climate change alone, and extensive groundwater pumping is set to make the land sink even lower. Tropical storms and hurricanes have become more intense, threatening homes, businesses, and infrastructure along the Gulf Coast. Drier, hotter summers are expected to impact farming further inland, with the longest period without rain increasing by three days each year over the next 70 years.
Things are set to heat up in Utah over the coming decades. The period from 2012 has been a scorcher, with the state experiencing eight of the 10 warmest years on record. Snowpacks are smaller and melting earlier, soils are becoming drier, and the need for irrigation is growing, putting immense pressure on the state’s already scarce water supplies. Utah's recreational activities will be affected too, with shorter ski seasons in the mountains. Meanwhile water levels at marinas, like this one at Great Salt Lake State Park in 2022, are too low to use.
Temperatures in Vermont have increased by 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century, with the period between 2010-2020 the hottest 11-year period on record. The higher temperatures have brought warmer winters and heavier rains, with the annual average rainfall increasing by 6% since 1960. With winter and spring rainfall predicted to get even heavier over the coming decades, Vermont will experience more severe storms and flooding, particularly in the mountainous regions of the state. The impact on the state’s $700-million dairy industry will be severe – a concern as it provides 70% of Vermont’s revenues.
With tropical storms and hurricanes set to become even more intense over the coming decades, Virginia’s 10,120-mile (16,287km) shoreline will be even more vulnerable. Most of the Hamptons Road area could be flooded by a major hurricane and subsequent storm surge. Poquoson and other communities along the Chesapeake Bay (pictured) are so low that water in roadside ditches rise and fall with the tides. The $3 billion worth of damages caused by Tropical Storm Lee in 2011 could be small change compared to what lies ahead.
Climate change in Washington will see its glaciers retreat, flow of meltwater decrease, and forests threatened by more frequent and intense wildfires. But it's the increasing acidity of its coastal waters and warming of its inland streams that pose the greatest threat. Oyster hatcheries in Washington are becoming less productive as the water becomes more acidic and corrosive. Plummeting plankton levels are impacting the whole marine food chain. And a combination of warmer waters and lower flows in inland rivers and streams threaten stocks of wild salmon, steelhead, and trout.
Flooding caused by heavier, more frequent rain storms is set to be the greatest climate challenge for West Virginia over the coming decades. From 2010 to 2020 alone, West Virginia had 23 FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) disasters declared, 18 of which were related to severe storms and flooding. When Hurricane Juan brought 10 inches of rain to West Virginia in 1985, the resulting floods caused more than $500 million in damage to 3,500 homes and 180 businesses. With annual rainfall predicted to rise between 5-10% over the next century, who knows what damage the increased flood waters will bring?
As Wisconsin warms over the coming decades, water quality in the Great Lakes, and Lake Michigan in particular, is expected to plummet. Heavier and more frequent storms will see increased pollution from stormwater runoff and warmer waters will lead to increasingly deadly algal blooms. One benefit of the warmer waters is that between 1994 and 2011 the decline in ice cover extended the shipping season on the Great Lakes by eight days. With the lakes set to warm by another 3-7°F over the coming decades, that’s good news for shipping companies. Not so much for the fish...
Over the coming decades, Wyoming is set to become drier and warmer, putting the state at greater risk of droughts and wildfires. Warmer winter temperatures will see the state’s glaciers retreat and snowpack shrink and melt sooner. Temperatures in Wyoming have risen by about 2.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century, with nearly every year of this century above the long-term average. Severe droughts are increasingly common too. In October 2020, 70% of the state was drought-stricken, sparking a terrifying wildfire season that saw almost 340,000 acres burned, including areas of Grand Teton National Park (pictured).