You only need to think back to the terrifying wildfires, brutal heatwaves and catastrophic storms of the past year to realise that weather in the US is becoming more extreme. What’s more, scientists say there’s “no convincing alternative explanation” for these events other than human-induced climate change. States At Risk has graded states from A to F (with A being least at risk and F being most) based on their preparedness for five climate change threats: extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland flooding and coastal flooding. We reveal the ranking, from least to most at risk.

Although California has the second highest wildfire risk out of every state, it has also taken the biggest steps to increase its preparedness. That’s largely thanks to its Safeguarding California plan. Initially published in 2014 and updated in 2018, the manifesto outlines more than 1,000 current and future actions for dealing with climate change threats, developed using a range of scientific experts. In fact, States At Risk describes it as “one of the most comprehensive climate change adaptation planning documents in the country”.

Facing only average or below-average threat from four of the climate risks (wildfires were not seen as a significant danger for the state), Pennsylvania is also doing a lot to manage them. With a well-detailed water plan, it’s one of the best-prepared states for dealing with drought risks, although States At Risk notes that “Pennsylvania could do more to solidify its plans and much more to put them into action”.

New York is particularly well prepared for dealing with drought and inland flooding – which is crucial given that 240,000 people live in flood-prone areas. It has already taken many actions to manage these dangers: the New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) has created a vulnerability assessment to protect critical infrastructure, while several other bodies are working to monitor climate change risks. However, States At Risk says that it could do better to increase continuity between efforts. 

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Drought and wildfires were not seen to be significant threats in Massachusetts, however the state faces significant risk of extreme heat, inland flooding and coastal flooding. It received an A grade for its preparedness in these three areas. In particular, it has taken “some of the strongest actions” to prepare for coastal flooding risks, which has included the Massachusetts Ocean Resource Information System (MORIS) which helps people understand how they could be impacted by sea level rise.

Receiving an overall grade of A- from States At Risk, Connecticut was highly praised for its preparedness for inland flooding, with a range of policies and funding opportunities aimed at increasing resilience. It’s slightly less prepared for coastal flooding, however, for which it received a B grade – and with 55,000 people currently at risk, it will need to do more to address the issue in future.

This mid-Atlantic state sets an example in preparing for extreme heat. Despite facing a below-average threat level, it has taken extensive action to prepare, which has included identifying adaptation options in its report: Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Maryland. It’s also a national leader in preparing for coastal flooding, with a detailed action plan in place. Meanwhile the three other risks (drought, wildfires and inland flooding) were not deemed significant enough for assessment in the state.

Currently Delaware experiences 10 days of extreme heat per year, but by 2050 this is predicted to rise to 50. Thankfully, the coastal state has created an impact assessment to show how this could affect the health of its citizens, as well as publishing a detailed plan with future adaptation measures. It also had above-average preparedness for inland and coastal flooding, with concerted efforts in place to address these risks presently and in the future. 

The Last Frontier might be the most northerly US state, but that doesn’t stop it from being at risk from extreme heat. In fact, Alaska currently has around 15 heatwave days per year and that figure is expected to triple by 2050. But it’s doing a lot to manage those risks, which includes measures to conserve drinking water and increase energy efficiency, as well as actions to understand future vulnerability to temperature changes.

Facing low risks in all five areas, North Carolina receives a B+ overall for its preparedness. In particular, States At Risk notes that it has an in-depth adaptation plan, Climate Ready North Carolina: Building a Resilient Future, which covers how threats could change and how to address them. However, it is noted that the state could do more to address inland flooding, with more than 450,000 residents currently living in flood-prone areas.

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One of the leading states in preparing for wildfire risks, Washington has helped local governments to develop Community Wildfire Protection Plans and create emergency response materials. However, it falls short when it comes to addressing extreme heat. Although it faces a below average risk level, the state has done little to address the impact of heatwaves on energy, water and health sectors.

Virginia gets an above average grade of B overall, on the basis of its preparedness for extreme heat, inland flooding and coastal flooding (drought and wildfires were not considered significant risks). In particular, it has taken extensive steps to address extreme heat, which has included publishing materials so residents can improve their health and safety preparedness. However, it has lower preparedness for coastal flooding, despite the fact 450 square miles (1,165sq km) fall within the 100-year coastal floodplain.

America’s smallest state faces a low threat of extreme heat. Yet with the number of annual heatwave days predicted to quadruple by 2050, from 10 to 40, residents will be relieved to learn that the state has taken significant steps to prepare for it. There is currently a programme in place to track extreme heat impacts and protect elderly or vulnerable people, plus it has been tracking heat-related health issues. Meanwhile, steps have been taken to understand the risks posed by inland flooding and to implement future strategies.

According to the local government, Michigan’s average yearly temperature has increased by 1.1-1.7°C (2-3°F) across most of the state since 1900. Thankfully, the Great Lake State has made solid efforts to combat this: studies have been undertaken to understand how high temperatures will affect transportation and health, as well as actions to increase resilience. The state also performs well for its preparedness for drought and inland flooding – for which it received B and B- grades respectively. 

Extreme heat and drought are the biggest threats facing Colorado, but the state's making good progress in addressing them. It has completed a statewide risk report, the Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study, which reveals how drought and heat could impact different sectors, while the Colorado Climate Plan gives potential adaptation measures. However, as with many other states, Colorado is falling behind when it comes to actually putting these measures in place. 

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This Pacific Northwest state has been hit by catastrophic wildfires during the past two summers, but it’s also doing a lot to fend them off. This has included developing an emergency response plan, improving emergency communications and gaining understanding of future risks. However, Oregon would do well to focus more on extreme heat, for which it received an F grade for its lack of preparedness.

After Alaska, the southwest is the fastest-warming part of the US, with temperatures in New Mexico rising by 1.84°C (3.32°F) between 1970 and 2018. The state has taken decent steps to combat this, which include the Environmental Public Health Tracking Program, used to record and provide educational materials about how extreme heat can affect health. It has also made some progress in addressing current wildfire risks, although strategies and plans for future fires are notably absent. 

Drought and extreme heat are the two biggest hazards facing Minnesota, which gains a B- overall on States At Risk’s ranking. Its Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan, along with other similar proposals, aims to help the state prepare for these risks, but like many other states it isn’t doing enough to increase preparedness in the future. 

Also gaining a B-, the Badger State is well prepared for dealing with extreme heat, despite facing a below-average risk level. One of the steps it has taken is to produce an educational toolkit for healthcare providers, detailing how to prepare for climate change risks including heat. However, the state lacks substantial preparation for inland flooding despite the fact that some 200,000 of its residents live in flood-prone areas. 

Now heading into the middle of the pack, North Dakota gained a C+ grade overall. The northern state is only significantly affected by two threats – extreme heat and flooding – and has had mixed successes at dealing with them. Despite taking “extensive action” to mitigate inland flooding risks, it hasn’t produced any kind of climate change vulnerability assessment, which means it’s poorly prepared to deal with this hazard in coming years. Meanwhile, it fares slightly better at managing extreme heat, for which it graded B-, but again, future planning is absent.

Across western America, snow is melting earlier in spring and heatwaves are becoming more common, which is likely to exacerbate drought, wildfires and extreme heat in the coming decades. So it’s all the more concerning that Utah is ill-prepared for the latter, with little evidence of future heat projections or statewide programmes to tackle this hazard in future. However, when it comes to tackling drought and wildfires the state performs a little better, thanks to its State Hazard Mitigation Plan and State Water Plan. 

Scarily, Iowa’s number of annual heatwave days are predicted to jump sixfold by 2050, from 10 to 60, while its summer drought threat is expected to increase by 70%. However, the state also faces significant inland flooding risks, with 150,000 people living in flood-prone areas. It has taken some measures to track data on these factors, as well as recording flood damage. But it would do well to create more climate change vulnerability assessments, put funding in place to deal with future impacts and create statewide adaptation plans. 

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Known for its terrifying twisters, such as the Moore and El Reno tornadoes which decimated the state in 2013 (pictured), Oklahoma knows all too well the impacts of extreme weather. Yet it would benefit from taking other climate change-related threats more seriously. The state, which received a C+ overall, scored below average for its preparedness for inland flooding, as it lacked a climate change adaptation plan or a vulnerability assessment. Meanwhile, it scored slightly better for its measures to deal with drought and extreme heat. 

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Just one climate change risk was deemed significant enough to assess in Vermont, namely extreme heat. The Green Mountain State rarely experiences temperatures hot enough to class as dangerous, although by 2050 it could have around five days of dangerous heat per year. It has excelled in producing materials to educate citizens about this threat, but has taken almost no steps to put future heat adaptation measures in place. 

Coastal flooding and extreme heat were the only two substantial risks in New Hampshire – what’s more, it had the lowest extreme heat threat level in the country. In other words, it’s a pretty safe place to be if you’re worried about climate change. That being said, the state does face a small risk of coastal flooding, despite its short coastline, plus only limited actions are currently being taken to mitigate future impacts.

While States At Risk declares West Virginia’s inland flooding threat as “average”, new data from the First Street Foundation suggests the state is more exposed to flood damage than any other. Which paints a concerning picture for the future, given that it only received a D+ grade for its preparedness on this front. It would do well to investigate how flooding might impact various sectors, as well as developing more in-depth adaptation measures. 

After hitting the headlines for devastating floods last August, it seems such events could become more common in Tennessee due to climate change. What’s more, with a low level of preparedness, the state receives a D grade on this measure. That’s not the only climate change concern it has on its plate, with significant risks from wildfires, drought and extreme heat to worry about too.

In recent years, Louisiana has lost around 25 square miles (65sq km) of land per year due to rising sea levels. In fact, it faces the second highest threat from rising sea levels in the country, with one million people currently at risk of a 100-year coastal flood. However, States At Risk found that Louisiana's management plan was “one of the most comprehensive approaches to addressing coastal flooding in the nation”, giving it a B- overall for that category. It fared less well in terms of its preparedness for drought, extreme heat and wildfires, gaining Cs and Ds in these areas. 

Two of Arizona’s major cities, Phoenix and Tucson, were ranked among the nation’s top 10 fastest warming cities in 2019, according to research by Climate Central. So it’s no surprise that drought, extreme heat and wildfires were its biggest concerns. In particular, it has the second-highest wildfire threat level in the country and has done little to mitigate it, with States At Risk commenting: “it has taken almost no action to plan for or adopt wildfire-related adaptation measures”. 

Gaining a C- overall, the Hoosier State currently has more than 270,000 people living in flood-prone areas, yet it’s done little to increase future preparedness. It also faces small yet significant danger from extreme heat – by 2050 there could be an average of 40 “dangerously hot” days per year – and drought. However, its comprehensive Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, as well as various emergency response materials, have been praised. 

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Performing significantly worse than its northern neighbour, South Carolina has not done enough to prepare for its various climate change threats, especially coastal flooding and extreme heat. Yet with around 90 annual days of dangerous heat predicted by 2050, sub-par efforts clearly aren’t enough. In order to improve its preparedness, the state is advised to create detailed assessments of its vulnerability across different sectors, as well as putting strategies in place to deal with future heat risks.

All five climate change risk factors affect Georgia and thankfully, the southern state has made good progress in addressing them. However, like many other states, it falls down on future preparation – this is especially true when it comes to coastal flooding. Some 100,000 people live on its coastal floodplain and there are limited measures in place to address adaptation to flooding.

The Sunshine State is famed for its gorgeous beaches and stunning Everglades, but these natural wonders may not be around much longer as it faces the largest coastal flooding risk in the country. And it’s not just vacationers that will suffer: by 2050 a whopping 4.6 million residents will be at risk. In order to combat flooding, Florida has started to outline adaptation strategies in the transport and communications sectors, yet it lacks preparedness across other sectors. 

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Moving on to the states which received D grades, Idaho scored poorly with a D+ overall. Although flooding wasn’t deemed a significant risk here, the state’s lack of preparedness for drought, wildfires and extreme heat set it back. States At Risk commented: “Like most states, Idaho has taken strong action to address its current drought and wildfire risks, but it has taken only limited action to address its current extreme heat risks – much less than most states.”

Nebraska is clearly experiencing the effects of extreme weather: it had its third wettest year on record in 2019, while in 2020 and 2021 it experienced severe drought. The central state was said to have taken “extensive action” to prepare for current drought-related issues, yet it had failed to understand future risks and develop management plans accordingly. A similar picture emerged when looking at the state’s two other major threats, extreme heat and inland flooding. 

Drier soils, more intense rainfall and increasingly hot summers are just some of the climate change-related issues set to plague Kansas in coming decades. The state was praised for its emergency communication materials, disaster response programmes and the Kansas Firewise Program, which helps communities prepare for wildfires. Yet its future preparedness is almost non-existent, leading to a low D+ grade overall.

Flooding presents the largest risks to New Jersey, yet the state is poorly equipped to deal with it. Despite having the fourth-largest population at risk of coastal flooding, it has only taken “limited action” to prepare for sea level rise and by 2050, an extra 110,000 people will live within its coastal floodplain. Its current Coastal Management Program has made a good start at addressing the issue, but future planning and management are sorely lacking.

You might not expect Maine, one of the country’s most northerly states, to be at risk of extreme heat. Yet it’s predicted to have 40 annual heatwave days by 2050 – a fourfold increase. The state has inadequately prepared for this danger, since its State Hazard Mitigation Plan doesn’t even cover extreme heat. Meanwhile, coastal and inland flooding also present significant threats to the state and while it has taken “strong action to understand” its vulnerability to the latter, its future strategy is non-existent.

The Bluegrass State has one of the highest flood risk levels in the country: around 13% of all properties have a one in four chance of becoming flooded in the next 30 years. Yet the state has a short-sighted approach to dealing with them, which fails to take climate change into account, earning it an F in this category. It fares slightly better in terms of preparedness for extreme heat and wildfires, yet States At Risk notes the glaring absence of an overarching climate change action plan in general. 

Winter and spring temperatures in Illinois have increased by around 1.1-1.7°C (2-3°F) during the past 120 years, according to data from NOAA, while projected increases in summer temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought. On this front, the state scores a pitiful D+, with a noted lack of preparedness for both current and future risks. Meanwhile, by 2050 the state is expected to see 50 days of dangerous heat per year, yet it has not taken enough action to plan for extreme heat, or to understand its impacts on health.

As a result of climate change, Wyoming is experiencing more frequent heatwaves and snow is melting earlier in spring, yet the state has taken hardly any steps to mitigate extreme heat. It also ranks in the bottom five states for its level of drought preparedness, despite the fact that summer drought is expected to increase by 40% by 2050. In general, it does have a climate change plan – the Wyoming Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan – but this (ironically) fails to put forward substantial future solutions. 

Just edging into the not-so-desirable top 10, Montana is ill-prepared for climate change and receives a D- grade overall. The state is somewhat prepared for wildfire risks, thanks to strong actions set about by its State Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. Yet it is poorly equipped to deal with drought, receiving an F on this category: it has one of the highest risk levels in the country yet it has one of the lowest preparedness scores. 

With the worst score in the country for its preparedness for inland flooding, South Dakota “has taken almost no action to address its future inland flooding risks”. It also has one of the worst scores for drought preparedness, despite the fact that summer drought is predicted to increase by 75% by 2050. Its one saving grace is that it’s taken decent steps to address extreme heat, although its actions are short-sighted. 

Even though it’s home to 320,000 people who are vulnerable to extreme heat, Ohio’s State Hazard Mitigation Plan makes no mention of this threat. It has also taken almost no action to deal with the future impacts of drought, which is predicted to increase by 50% by 2050, while its efforts to curtail inland flooding are far behind other states. All in all, it’s not good news for residents of Ohio, which gains a D- overall.

With some 2.8 million of its residents living in areas which are at risk of wildfires, the Cotton State has done very little to protect them. As States At Risk notes: “Alabama has not conducted a detailed climate change vulnerability assessment on future wildfire risks and it has not adopted an adaptation plan.” The story isn’t much better where coastal flooding is concerned – in fact, it’s done less than any other coastal state to deal with this.

Hawaii is set to be badly affected by rising sea levels in the future, with low-lying areas particularly at risk. While 65,000 people currently reside in its coastal floodplain, the state is likely to see the largest increase in coastal flooding of any state, yet its actions to understand and prepare for future risks are highly limited. Meanwhile for extreme heat, which is expected to significantly worsen by 2050, the state has also done very little.

Sea levels are rising rapidly in Mississippi, which is especially worrisome for the communities that live in low-lying coastal areas. Plus, the state has one of the lowest preparedness levels for coastal flooding, with a severe lack of focus on future management. It also scores poorly on its management of drought, extreme heat and wildfire risks, earning it an F grade overall.

By 2036, the Lone Star State is expected to experience twice as many 38°C (100°F) days compared with 2000-2018, while seas are rising around two inches (5cm) per decade along its coastline. Texas has made some changes to prepare for present-day threats – except for extreme heat, for which it graded F – but lacks preparedness for upcoming climate-change driven risks. 

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Despite the fact that more than 200,000 people in the state live in flood-prone areas, Missouri has done nothing to prepare for the increased risk of inland flooding due to climate change, earning an F in this category. It was also one of the worst-prepared states for wildfires, taking limited action to understand climate change-related wildfire risks and no action to plan for a future increase in wildfires.

Facing the third-highest risk of inland flooding of all states assessed, Arkansas has done very little to understand how foods might become more frequent due to climate change – plus it’s done nothing to manage future risks. Adding to the concerning picture, the state has taken less action than any other state to prepare for wildfire risks, despite the fact that around 45% of its population lives in areas susceptible to fires. 

Nevada is the state at highest risk from climate change. Over the past century, the state has warmed by around 1.1°C (2°F), while in the future drought and heatwaves are expected to become more common. Which makes it all the more concerning that States At Risk found Nevada to have the worst preparedness level in the country for extreme heat and drought. Nevada also had one of the worst preparedness levels for wildfires, despite being one of the most at-risk states. 

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